late night musing

I’ll be off to bed soon, but of the many things that I’ve pondered the past couple of days, it’s a minor one that’s bringing me to write.

I find that Obama intrigues me.  and probably more significantly, I don’t think most people know who he is.

See, I keep running into these people - left and right - who keep saying he’s this or that, and then when he comes out on a position they scream of reversal or betrayal.  And then they turn around and discuss his short list of candidates - heck, even I’ve done that last, a bit.

Ladies and Gentlemen, especially all of you who say you want a candidate who thinks in terms larger than soundbites, I present to you Obama.  Really, you will do well to actually read and listen to the WHOLE SPEECH. All of them, actually.  Because the thing is, there are very, very few things where he’s not nuanced.  Where he isn’t saying, “while my basic position is thus, I’m willing to negotiate the details and fringes.”  Or, “While I have an opinion, I want to hear others, and their justifications, before I act.”

He thinks.  He listens.  And then he says what he’s going to do.

Do I like everything he’s chosen to do?  No.  I think he should stand a bit stronger on the current FISA deal, as one example.  But… he thinks.  He weighs the whole.

The other thing of note is that he’s not following the “same old path”.  Oh, it’s mostly the same as most other presidents and candidates, and that’s because it’s still the same nation.  But, well, to give an example, I do not think anyone has really thought about his candidate for VP correctly.  I’m probably a bit close in CLOSING windows rather than emphasizing paths, but I”m sure I’m off as well.

By the numbers, a VP candidate does not win a state unless it’s close already.  The candidate rarely provides the weight in an area lacked elsewhere, not really - though it may appear so (Johnson and Cheney as examples).  Really, what the VP does is add a voice.  And in that regard Obama has a decision and will follow the norm - because there are two historical patterns.  The second voice can be the bad cop to the candidate’s good cop.  Or, it can be a harmonious echo of the candidate.

I find I’ve no clue as to which Obama will choose.  But I’m beginning to have this suspicion - just a niggle, mind you - that the actual short list isn’t the one all the pundits and such are considering.  I just get this impression the first reaction to the announcement will be, “Who?”  Followed, depending on speaker, by either, “What a mistake, now McCain’s going to win for sure,” or “Wow, that actually works.”  Of course that’s what we’d here even if it were, “Of course he picked him/her.”  But…

“Who?”

That’s my prediction of the reaction to the person chosen to run with Obama.  It’ll be interesting.

Strategy

I am on some military strategy lists.  On one of them I’ve gotten into a bit of a peeing match.  I’m still hot enough I am going to need to vent in my own space.  shrug.

We are at peak oil, like it or not.  World production has been remarkably stable at just over 85 million barrels per day (mbpd) since the middle of 2004, DESPITE various nations (especially the Saudis) saying they’d increase, and DESPITE increases across the globe in demand. (More cars on the road - China - means more demand for gasoline.  That’s a simple measure but demonstrates the increase.)

Oil production will not cut off as though a switch has been thrown.  But it will decrease, and that decline will begin somewhere between one and four years from now.  (The sources I trust figure it more tightly at 2010, but ymmv.)

Probably various fields about to come online will slow the decline, or possibly even extend the plateau.  Not increase production, sorry - their output will ramp up as other places ramp down.

The bottom line is that there will be more competition for an ever-scarcer “critical” material.  And that will result in increased costs, increased friction, and a pursuit of alternatives.

The US is behind the curve on this.  Looking at it SOLELY from a nationalistic view, we’ve got a short and painful list of options.

a) We can try and seize/secure oilfields in other places.  The secondary weakness of this is that we’ll have to expend a LOT of money and effort to keep others from taking it from us - directly, through theft, or merely sabotage (if they can’t have it, nobody gets it).  The PRIMARY weakness of this is, well, it’s like fighting to be the man atop the mast on a sinking ship.  Being last in the water doesn’t help unless there’s help on the way.  It postpones the problems.

b) We can try to reduce our oil use by changing our habits to use less oil.  I need to digress and point out that in the United States, the single greatest use of oil - as in about 70% - is transportation.  A bit over 60% of that is PERSONAL transportation.  Yep, about 42% of the oil we use - imports and home production both - is used by commuters and vacationers.  It becomes obvious that mass transit, to name one example, IF USED becomes a viable method of reduction.  As a strategic aside, making this happen is possible, but it’ll be nasty.  First, make sure laws pass that encourage mass transit use over personal vehicle use.  Second, fund mass transit while penalizing individual transit.  Yes, I mean such things as BOOST federal taxes on gas, use that money both to subsidize construction and initial use, and further ‘tempt’ by offering tax credits for expenses when using mass transit. (Bus/rail receipts reduce my taxes?  ok).

The advantage of this strategy is it significantly reduces our need to get involved in other production sites.  Involvement is optional.  And without OUR nose in the middle of various messes, it’s someone ELSE’s nose that gets bloodied.  It also extends how long we can operate before we are gasping at the shortage.

The largest disadvantage is that even though we’ve made staying on top of the mast easy, the mast is still sinking.  And a secondary is that whether we want to or not, we’re still going to be drawn into some of the squabbles - either due to alliances or due to other issues.  As an example, if some nation decides to nuke another, we’re going to be a wee bit upset and become involved.  Oh, I almost forgot the other secondary disadvantage.  Ten to twenty years to pull off all the way.  Five to get tolerable if we make it a national emergency priority.  Finally, a tertiary (to us) disadvantage — everyone else is still fighting over the scraps and contributing to both shortages and climatological problems.

c) The other option - the HARD one - is to reduce EVERYONE’s dependence on oil.  big sigh.  What do we need?  We need a fuel source that is mobile and will be a REASONABLE compromise in comparison to gasoline.  It’s really that simple, and that hard.  Now it might be fuel cells, or it might be improved batteries.  Barring miracles in the bioengineering area, it won’t be biofuels. (Set aside the EROI, just figure the fuel needed, then the raw material needed to create that fuel for the world, then compare to arable land available.  Even if we sacrifice 100% of our food production capacity, it ain’t happening.)

Biggest advantage?  Removes the demand for a scarce resource.  Actually it doesn’t, but it drastically reduces it.

Disadvantage?  Add “eventually” to that sentence above.  there are some promising technologies, but nothing is yet viable for replacing gasoline as a fuel.  So we’re talking serious R&D, followed by ramp up of production followed by distribution - first locally /nationally, then globally.

So, what does this all mean?

If I were advising the next president on strategies, I’d tell him to go nuts on option three, and while the R&D is ongoing to push option two.  For a decade, maybe two we’d have to act as though we’re a lot smaller than we are - very, very little force projection, save as absolutely required to keep from being destroyed or denied our other two options.

At least, that’s what I’d like to advise.  And would.  But the reality of politicians who want re-elected is that unless the tragedy is staring them in the face, people won’t sacrifice.  So in reality, I’d advise as follows:

Lay the groundwork for options two and three.   But for the next eight years, build a force structure and diplomatic corps that ensures when the shortfalls happen we get ours - and when the war breaks out we are ABLE to follow options two and three.

Yeah, war.  Military conflict over who gets the output.  Incidentally destroying a large proportion of that capacity for at least the short term.  I figure that’s about a decade out - when everyone KNOWS the oil is going away.  It could be sooner, but if so that victory condition will be obscured by something else.  (In other words, if Iran/US kicked off, it wouldn’t ostensibly be about the oil.  But the oil is the reason other nations would get involved - on BOTH sides.)

Update on the motorcycle

Yep, it’s the igniter.  Let me walk the steps.

First, continuity of wires.  Is there a path from signal generator to igniter, and from igniter to coils?  Yes.

Second, test of coils.  Does it show the appropriate resistance from positive to negative?  Yes. Is there continuity - and appropriate resistance - from cap to cap (remember, two spark plug wires from coil to plugs)?  Yes.  Are the caps themselves showing proper resistance?  Yes.

Third, test of signal generator.  Two wires, are they showing the appropriate resistance through the generator?  Yes.

Fourth, when the power is on, is it getting to the igniter?  yes.  Is it getting to the coils? … forgot to check. sigh.  The question of “enough” also matters.

Finally, testing the igniter.  If you bridge the signal generator line with 1.5v of source, it should generate a spark on one coil.  And when you remove the bridge, it should spark the other.  Tried, no spark.

So at this point I’ve got two things to do.  First, confirm that 12v goes to the coil when the power is on.  Second… decide whether to repair or buy a new igniter.

No, that’s not true.  I’ve already decided to rebuild it.  It’s surprisingly open.  Yay, more electronics fun.

Don’t get old…

I’m 48 years old, and sometimes I feel older than my age. Yes, this is a whine post, and you’re more than welcome to bring cheese.

Don’t get old, but if you do, don’t get out of shape.  Seriously.  As noted a bit ago, I had to do some work.  It was in an awkward location.  No big deal, I’ve done that sort of thing more times than I care to count.  Yesterday, however, I paid the price.  Seems I overdid something in my lower back.  Walking was agony.  So was sitting, or lying down, or, well, pretty much everything.

Now, having pulled muscles before, I knew that “all” I’d done was overdo them.  Time and rest were going to be the cures - a couple of days of next to nothing labor-wise.  Since I have a relatively sedentary job, rest while working wasn’t going to be hard.  In fact, there are so many ‘little things I could be doing’ at home that I was more likely to rest at work.  And so it proved.

Today, it hurts.  But I can walk up the stairs - not spring, but walk.  I move fairly well, not needing to shuffle as I did yesterday.  I’m not checking my watch to see if I can take the next dose of painkiller.

I’ll be fine Thursday - only suffering a little tomorrow.  I’ll skip karate tonight, of course, to make that true.  By Friday it’ll be look back and laugh.  Till I have to do the next whatever that requires stretching or bending or awkward angles that used to be easy.

I’ve been sorta considering doing some projects around the house on top of maintenance.  Nothing serious, just things like a ramp instead of stairs at the front and back.  Not completely wheelchair accessible, but more handicap friendly than what I’ve got.  I’ve seen the old folk and stairs.  And these twinges tell me that I should really do so.  Heck, trying to get up two stairs yesterday told me a LOT.  Not soon, but probably by the end of next summer.  Just a few more dollars I have to get from somewhere…

Weekend interrupted

Well, I WAS going to do some simple work on the bike.  That got interrupted.

Saturday was a variety of daily maintenance around the house things.  Sunday was supposed to be bike for most of the day.  Instead…

Sunday morning I see two cats staring intently at the stove.  Daughter says, Hey, they actually started a couple of days ago.  So, after cooking breakfast and letting wife and daughter hide, I pull out the stove and the cats dart behind it and stare…

Me, I discover two things.  First, the idiots we bought the house from did NOT put wallboard or anything else over a stretch of wall.  Six feet long, three and a half feet tall, studs and insulation.  I’m angry.

Second, mouse turds.  Five is all I find, but still…  Mouse turds.

The good news is that both cats are INTENT.  The bad news is that they can’t get there during normal days.  So my day was filled with getting something over the opening, cleaning, that sort of thing…

Now, I hate having mice.  And I’m aware of a couple of problems.  First and foremost, the mice won’t go away with the new wall in place.  All that will do is make it harder for them to get something to eat.  If it’s hard enough, of course, they’ll go somewhere else.

If the cats could get into that little gap, I’d have no issue.  They can’t, so I do.

Because of the cats, poison is out.  The fastest-acting poison still takes 12 hours.  And what’s in the mouse will kill a cat if the cat eats it.

So… traps in the hard to reach places.  mutter.  Mutter because cleaning traps is mine - not the wife, not the daughter.

The good news is that I’ve two mousers.  The bad news is that they can’t get where I need them.  sigh.

quick oops fix

I realized the last three posts I made, I wrote as “pages”.  It’s a nice thing WordPress has, but it can cause problems.

Specifically, they fail to make the front page.  And they sit forever attached to the header, which can eventually be Waaaay to large.

So that flurry of posts you see below isn’t me going nuts today.  It’s copying pages from the past while to the post side of the system.

School Dress Codes

I was going to spin off more on yesterday’s post, but that’s at best 50% possible.  This…

One of the local school boards has decided to “tighten” the dress code.   Now, I could go on about the fact that there are no studies that clearly show dress code improves academic performance.  Or improves discipline.  Or, well, anything the dress code people usually say.  No, this one made the mistake of a bit of honesty.

See, the reason they’re tightening it is that they (publicly) said that the clothes the girls are wearing are distracting the boys.  Let’s examine this, shall we?

It is the girls fault.

Period.

The boy is never - or rarely - responsible for his poor academic performance.  His disruption of class is just another attempt to attract the attention of those brazen hussies.  Likewise the placing of sports over books.  And…

Ok, what tripped this for me was reading the letter several “concerned grandmothers” sent to the school board, which that board used as part of the justification.  To paraphrase, “Our grand-daughters are dressing like sluts.  Stop them.”  Actually, that’s not fair.  They weren’t just picking on their own grand-daughters, they were addressing all the girls.

We’ve got school systems that are in the bottom quarter of one of the worst performing states (academically) in the nation, and they want to spend money and effort on making them dress circumspectly.  No dresses, shorts or such more than three inches above the knee.  No “low-cut” blouses or other tops (and no, that term is not defined, so take it as “cuts that show cleavage”.)  No snug clothing on girls.  No baggy clothing on anyone.  Oh, and we had to cut another set of teachers from employment - no worry.

sigh.  That’s not my daughter’s school district, specifically, but it could be.

Great Gatsby

My daughter’s got three books to read over the summer for her school.  Well, not just read.  Read, and then do quite a bit of analysis homework on them.  One of those is the Great Gatsby.

Now, I’m not just a librarian, I’m a bibliophile.  While I am not fond of most Dickens, I can see why folk are.  I can see the tensions and themes of, well, a lot of stories.

But the Great Gatsby fails, to me, and I still don’t understand why it’s considered “great” reading.

Take this analysis my daugther has to do.  “Identify and discuss at least two themes.”  Now I’ve read and discussed many of the things - how it’s representative of the decay of the 1920s in America and all that - but I think they all fail.  One of the reasons I don’t consider the Great Gatsby a “great work” is that it’s really only got one theme:

The corruption of the Upper Class.

All the other themes that I’ve seen are spinoffs, subordinate and dependent upon that element.  “The East is false, the MidWest is true.”  “The inherent falsehood of the 1920s.” “Inserting your self into a corrupt society will inevitably corrupt and destroy you.” Decadence.  Waste.  sigh.

Now I happen to prefer Stories to Great Works.  In fact, it’s my contention that a so-called Great Work that isn’t foremost a story is not in reality a Great Work.  (See much of James Joyce.)  I think it worth pointing out that this tale died when it was published.  It wasn’t resurrected by a loyal fanbase.  It was.. some critics, who used it as a morality message to berate the decadence and corruption of the 1920s.

heh - notice the circular reasoning here?  Yeah.

I never, ever recommend the Great Gatsby.  It’s got some serious rough spots in its storytelling, even granting the wordiness (in our eyes) common to writing of that era.  (There’s a chapter - the exposition chapter where Gatsby tells our narrator What’s Going On - that my daughter summed as, “Oh, Gatsby is demonstrating he’s insane.  Now it makes sense.”)

As my inevitable digression, the other two stories are A Lesson Before Dying and The Scarlet Letter.  I’m not fond of either.  But they are stories.  And beyond that they’ve multiple themes, some of which are independent of others within the work.  Some, in fact (in ALBD) help cause the tension as the themes themselves come into conflict.

Gatsby… bad story.  Bad “literature”.  I’d rejoice in never seeing it be Required Reading ever again.

a bit of Iran

As longer-term readers may know, I’ve long felt the administration WANTED to attack Iran, but has been stopped by, well, by people who allowed Iraq to happen and are trying avoid “shame on me.”  (The correct version, Mr. President, is, “Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.”)

This bias has made it hard to predict actual attempt to attack.  Not least, because a lot of innocuous activity has looked to be the ‘first stages’.

Now one of the avenues that’s open which avoids a lot of this is for the attack to be done by a proxy - Israel.  A couple of years ago or so there was some worry when Israel bought the very deep penetrator bombs from us, but nothing came of that.

At the beginning of this month, the worry ratcheted up some more.  Israel conducted air exercises at the end of a long range - specifically, near Greece.  The distance to Greece and Iran are not dissimilar.  The official word from both Greece and Israel has been “no” - among other things they point out that the exercises were for the most part done at high altitudes instead of low.  That’s not, in my opinion, a definitive defense.  The airstrike practices done in the exercise WERE conducted at the appropriate altitudes.  And while the coastal crescent is low, there’s a very high mountain range followed by high plateau in Iraq that makes things just a wee bit closer than you might assume.  Still, if that was all, I’d have passed.

Thing is, Israel is buying things.  Say rather, they’re buying potentially military supplies at higher rates of acquisition than ‘normal’.  Increased parts.  Increased fuel.  Increased commodities and foodstuffs.

It worries me.

It will take them another couple to four weeks to have most of the purchased goods in hand.  That’s my watch window.  Mid to late July.  I’m not sure enough to go nuts.  But I’m worried enough to make sure I’m not at a complete loss for ‘what to do.’

I’m going to keep an eye on indicators.  I might be making some advance purchases next weekend - just in case.

Other hobbies

[more added later]

Among other things I’m up to, I’ve got this piece of lawn art - sorry, restoration in progress.  Actually, it was - and is - meant to become my primary mode of transportation.  It’s a 1981 Suzuki GS850.

Now let’s start with hard, solid reality.  I’m reasonably talented with computers.  And information research is my Big Deal - profession as well as avocation.  But automotive skills?  ummm, yeah.  For a couple of long, miserable years I’ve been off-and-on fighting getting the thing running.

Today, I wanted to cry.  I was doing some desultory research into it all, and discovered I may have been not doing something blindly simple.  I’ll know tonight.  If so, I’ve been fighting myself, and could have been riding a couple of years ago.  What have I done?  Welll… (blush)

One of the early things I did - right or wrong, in retrospect - was pick up new coils.  Which also came with new wires to connect to the plugs (which are also new - and that was a good thing to do).  I recall the wires looked a little odd when I attached them, but, well, I did it anyway.  Odd?  The ends were, well, hollow.  Which may mean that the reason I’m getting zero spark at the plugs is that there’s no connection.  sigh.

Tonight, I may be kicking myself over this.  We’ll see.

[and later]

Nope, not kicking myself.  darnit.  OK, just because I’m using this half as an echo board, half desparate plea for someone to have a bright idea…

I’ve had to replace some wires and a fuse.  The coils were corroded, so I replaced them as well as four plugs.  I also had to clean the clutch safety switch, and resolder the wire under the starter button.

Now, when I turn the key, flip the switch to run, pull the clutch, and press the start button, the rotor rotates.  Cover off the signal generator, i can see it spinning as well as hear the… “vrum vrum vrum” sound.  But I’m getting zero spark at the plugs.

My multimeter’s batteries died.  When I get some more (we’re OUT?  sigh) I’ll do some tests.  1) test the resistance at each of the.. dunno the name, but the magnetic bulges which generate the spark on the signal generator.  I’ll also be testing continuity along the whole bloody thing looking for a broken wire or corroded connection that I’ve missed.  Already checked the fuse - it’s fine.

Once the sparks go, I’ll reassemble it  and see if it’ll actually catch.  Might not - there are a few odds and ends that need work.  For example, the airbox on a GS850 (among others) is peculiar.  It’s SUPPOSED to restrict airflow.  This one… I’ve replaced three of the boots, and may need to replace a fourth.  And the box may need to be better sealed as well.  I have a real strong suspicion that I’ll be pulling, cleaning, and resetting the carbs.  At that point the engine should run, and even if it’s rough, that will be enough to justify the next chunk of change.

Next chunk of change will be opening the engine - well, pulling the cover - and checking the wear and glazing on the valves and pistons - and, I suppose, the clearances.  Also, I’ll check wear on the gears and the shaft.

Shaft?  Yes, the GS850 is a shaft, not a chain.  Which is one more thing to open and examine.

But all that engine stuff shouldn’t be much - I’ve opened it once to look and at that time it didn’t look too bad (other than I want to ensure the old dead oil is really gone).  No, there are some places I WILL spend money, and don’t want to till I know it’ll run.

I have two tires to replace.  I also have a brake system to replace.  There’s a dead seal on the rear brake cylinder - maybe more than one, but at least one.  Pads, and oh yeah the cables are going to be replaced with braided steel cables.  Oh, and the seat needs either fixed and replaced.  And last but far from least, it needs a new kickstand.  Right now it’s on the mid-stand.  The tip of the kick is broken off about one inch too short.  ummm, and a serious expense.  I think I’ve got the rust on the forks under control with no rough spots - don’t think it quite broke the chrome.  But if it did… new forks, new seals on the front shocks, much pain and sweating and…  I am a librarian with computer experience.  Learning the hard way to be a mechanic.  sigh.

Either I’m riding this or selling it by the time winter (such as it is round here) settles in.  If I’m riding it, winter maintenance is special - sure, let’s wax whimsical.

I’ll pull everything - EVERYTHING - off.  I want to polish and clean a bunch of things that aren’t… necessary immediately, but which will improve a few things.  There’s still a bunch of wire I’d like to replace - yes, I’d just like to replace all the harness if I can.  Wire I know, and this stuff is on the edge in my opinion.  Anyway, and then there’s the whimsical.

I want to paint the bike - frame, fuel tank, and what little else has color.  I have this image - HAVE had it for since I bought the darn thing.  Dark green.  Black sillhouette with gray/silver ‘mist’ overlay/shading/highlights of a knight on a charger, lance leveled.  yeah, I can’t get Mad Maudlin out of my head.

And I’ll make hardcases.  That’s… both a bit tricky, and (I think) a reasonable extension of a bunch of stuff I’ve done in the past.  Positive mold for the fiberglass, mounted on a welded step-plate and frame that forms the attachment to the bike.  Same color scheme, but… this time, what’s on it as a picture keeps changing.  Maybe just an echo of the fuel tank.  Dunno.  Hmmm, just reread this paragraph.  In detail it’s a lot more, but that makes a fairly simple explanation.

Which means that provided I don’t sell the lawn art as pieces, I’ll have a very pretty motorcycle next spring.  It should - historical - run about 50 mpg on my commute (mix interstate, major boulevard, and city streets).  Which is about a 60-75% improvement on the two cars.  I’ve been told there are some tweaks after that which can push it higher - we’ll see, but I’d like that.

Oh - and I insisted on taking the Basic Motorcycle Safety Course from the MSF.  And will probably take a refresher.  Sure, the insurance is good.  But…

I had a motorcycle when I was in my early 20s.  I had it for all of three months, and nearly killed myself several times over.  When I took the class, I sat there going, “Yep, you’re right, that’s bad.”  Because I’d done it, and KNEW what could happen even if you were lucky.  Wish I’d had the class then.

Right now, with gas at ~$4.00 per gallon, I’ll save an average of 20 gallons / $80 per month.  That… won’t pay off the cost of the bike in one year.  However, I suspect in the long run it’ll be a LOT better savings.

Well, later.