subtle earthquakes

One more before I leave for a while.   I saw this on one blog – don’t recall which – some time ago and think it’s actually quite significant.

It’s quite apparent that the Dems are going to win the house today, the only question being the margin.  Buried in the noise, however, is the passing of a torch.

For the first time in a LONG time, the party that holds the majority of the south’s seats will NOT also be the majority of the house.  The ramifications are tremendous.

Historically, the south has gotten a lot of grease due to this fact.  Historically, “playing to the south” was the key to winning any national campaign.  The south may have lost the war, but they certainly made up for it in control… till now.

I suspect the really smart campaign managers have already taken note of this.  I suspect a few of the almost-as-smart political pundits will notice it over the next couple of months.  But you won’t really see the effects till something happens in the house that brings the South up short.  Something that’s “always been” in the past, but which is no longer theirs to decide.  Probably we’ll see it as early as mid-January, certainly no later than March.

And when we do, the less observant commentators, having finally had their noses rubbed in the fact that the South is no longer critical to deciding the future of the nation, may start looking at what other regions of the US may consider important.

As a spillover… there’s a great deal of print on the strength of having been a southern politician to run effectively for the presidency.  It’s tripe, but it gets lots of press and consequently some nodding of the masses.  This time, the strength of winning South Carolina (as the main example) may not be so significant.  We’ll see.

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