Predictions, an assessment

Missed completely on Iran.  The US Government and many pundits are still making the case that we have to “do something” about Iran – and we have moved a second carrier into proximity.  But it’s still not a shooting match, and it’s past my predicted date.

On recession, I refuse to say I missed at this time.  Two factors here.  First, the NBER decides these things after the fact.  Second, and speaking specifically against the fact the official reports are that GDP growth was positive, I direct readers to the historical GDP information on BEA.  Put simply, the revisions to how the data is calculated and applied retroactively to past years give us positive GDP growth – as high as 1.8% – in quarters in the midst of official recessions.

Or to put more bluntly, by current reconning anything less than 2% growth might just be a recession.  By the way, the growth for Q32006 was….


And there are good reasons to think the fourth quarter wasn’t as good.

I’m standing by the prediction that when the shouting’s done we’ll discover the recession began already, we’re just awaiting official notice.

(Worth noting – there are a number of secondary datapoints that say I’m right.  And a number of others that say it’s not here yet.  So I can’t claim victory, but have some reason to stand firm still.)


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