Drums of war?

My prediction of the “when” of a war with Iran was predicated on the belief that President Bush wouldn’t want to deal with a congress that would refuse to allow him to go to war.  In other words, “now” to prevent “never”.  I assumed that he wouldn’t attack Iran without getting some sort of approval.  I forgot Digby’s Dictum – If there’s a way Bush can screw it up worse, he will.  (note I’m paraphrasing.  and it may have originated from Billmon – but that misses the alliteration value.)

I’m seeing a large crop of articles from various so-called right wing columnists saying we have to go to war with Iran.  And it reminds me of late 2002/early 2003.  We’ve had the UN resolution that says “Iran’s been bad” – the fact it came without a definite “military force is an option” clause doesn’t change the fact that “sanctions are imposed.”  (Oh By The Way…  The resolution – 1727 – has two deadlines for compliance.  There’s the 60 day and the 90 day compliance frames.  The resolution was passed December 23.  Keep these in mind, I’m going to return to them.)

There are also a number of left wing pundits warning of levels of planning – past the base contingency, and into the phase two level of planning.  That is, “Here’s what we’re going to do.  What happens next, and how do we counter it?”  Alternately phrased – given that the enemy will do his best to make your plan go wrong, try to anticipate and neutralize all the ways he can do this.  (Despite conventional wisdom, a good plan is one that’s identified almost all of these and works in such fashion as to make them relatively immaterial.)   On the other hand, this particular drum’s been beaten for about a year now with ‘it’s going to happen before the year is out’ deadlines.

A few pundits have been saying March-April of this year.  Which brings us back again to that resolution.  60 days is the 21st of February.  90 is the 23d of March.  “March-April.”

I’m pretty well convinced that we’re going to get in a shooting war with Iran.  Those drums of war — those voices that we’re discovering (thank you, Libby trial) have been proxy voices for the administration for the last six years – are beating loudly.  They weren’t so loud last year.  And at a certain point there’s either a flourish (and charge) or they die back.   So I also think that if it’s not happened by October of this year it’s not going to happen under this president.

But I’m trying to plan for the worst, while leaving room to grow in the event it’s not that bad.


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