gotta write something

OK, I didn’t write this weekend – mea culpa.  My daughter had her birthday party, and that pretty well took up the weekend.  But today – today is no excuse.  So, let’s find something interesting.  I know – Gonu.  I’m not going to link as it’s a moving target.

heh.  pun.  sorry.

Gonu is a cyclone.  It is, as of last report, a category 5 storm.  (If it were in the Atlantic we’d call it a hurricane, but…)

As of last report, Gonu is sitting in the northern Arabian Sea.  And it’s got some tracks – enough to call it a decent probability – that runs it into the Gulf of Oman.

The Gulf of Oman, for those who haven’t an atlas handy, is the body of water that connects the Arabian Sea to the Straits of Hormuz, which in turn connects to the Persian Gulf.  In other words, that storm’s going to hammer the mouth of the gulf through which a big chunk of the world’s oil passes.

At a minimum, I expect disruption of shipping for a few days, and a few (hopefully short) interruption of Oman’s oil production.  (Approximately 745,000 barrels per day, or about 1/3 of what the Gulf of Mexico produced prior to Katrina.)  At worst…  At worst, it goes a bit further northwest before curving north then northwest.  Then it hammers several of Saudi Arabia’s outlets, and hits the main portion of Iran’s oil production.  “Hammer” is an understatement, really.  The good news is that this is a low probability.

I think the most likely issue is a bit of panic due to a short-term interruption, but things will get back on track fairly soon.  Of course, the storm’s still a couple of days out from the critical point, so there’s plenty of time to get worried.


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