History rhymes

I’ve said before that the elections of 2006 seemed eerily similar to the elections of 1930.    There are several issues that make me suspect the economic situation leading up to 2008’s elections will resonate with those leading to 1932.

Yes, I’m expecting to see a lot of foreclosed homes — and federal (and state) programs thrown out to desperately stuff the horses back into the barns.  er, to help those who lost homes regain them.  The over-extension of credit – really in realty but splashily up front in the stock market – that disappears overnight leaving people’s savings in the dust.  (Credit is money till it isn’t.  And if your money was tied up in providing that credit, well, then it too isn’t anymore.)  The businesses riding the wire to get that extra percent of profit that suddenly find themselves over the cliff…

Yes, I think we’re going to see a recession.  And because of my contempt for the current administration – and (like Hoover) its almost pathological insistence that business will save business and government needs to butt out – and the leadership inability to admit they’re wrong – I think the recession will be deep.

fwiw, I think we’ve been in an odd recession for several years already.  It’s just that with modern accounting and production and delivery techniques the severity has been reduced.  But because of the reduction — because it’s not been obvious — we’ve not bit the bullet to get out of it.

I think that’s going to change over the next year and a half — the cracks seem unpatchable.

It’s going to be a nasty four or five years for a lot of us.  It’ll end, things will get better, and those of us who don’t get destroyed will come out better than we are.  But some of us won’t make it.

And that angers me.


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