Obama had an outstanding showing tonight. Edwards squeeked an edge over Clinton. But… I’ve a nasty, evil, suspicious mind.
Basically, the huge disparity between attendees of the Dem vs Rep caucuses bothers me. Sure, the optimists are attributing it to the relative excitement. Thing is… if you add the two sets of numbers together, you get a total turnout not too much larger than 2004. Now, bear with me.
The polls and predictions say the best opponent (of the top three) for just about every possible GOP candidate is Obama. First, his numbers are the closest. Second… the Wilder/Bradley effect. Now, Obama beat Clinton tonight 37.5 to 29.4. But Olbermann cited some numbers that say among Democrats the margin was only 31:30. If you round slightly, you still get the idea that Obama got a lot of non-Democrats — allegely independents, but… what if they’re Republicans? GOP trying to shift the election.
Now the reason I suspect such a thing – besides my dirty nasty mind – is two historical issues. First, there’s been this trend. The GOP keep saying their opponents do X, and then it’s discovered THEY are doing X. One of the things about which they’ve yelled loudly in the past is that Dems are crossing to get the GOP foe they think they can best beat. Now for the most part, the idea of the GOP doing this is as laughable as the idea of the Dems doing it. Except, there’s McKinney.
I don’t like the congresswoman. But the interesting history of her primary for her next to last run is… A record number of people voted in the Dem primary, while a record low showed for the GOP. But when it came time for the actual vote, the total number of Dem votes was LESS THAN that of the primary. However. the TOTAL votes – both sides summed together – were more like what’s expected. That is, there were more voters for the “real” election than for the primary. Proof? Pish, tut, toffle. Suspicious? Yes.
I’m awaiting New Hampshire. If Obama has as large a lead, ok. If he’s as close as Clinton and Edwards were tonight… maybe. If he doesn’t win NH, I’m suspecting shenanigans.
We’ll just have to see.