Today’s political observation

With the news that Rudy’s top staffers are foregoing their most recent paycheck, and news that Romney is also having trouble paying the bills, it appears I may not see a GOP brokered convention.  It may be Huckabee all the way.

Yes, the polls can’t be completely trusted.  But over the past four weeks Huckabee has surged in every state — with bounces from his Iowa win.  And it’s pretty much granted he’s going to win SC, the only real questions being by how much and who can pull second.  The “sweat states” NV and a couple of unsanctioned states – MI and FL.  Of those last two, MI was previously Romney’s lock while Giuliani locked Florida.  And NV was not considered an evangelical stronghold — the assumed sole strength for Huckabee — and so was the Romney/Giuliani battleground.  But with a monetary shortfall for both AND the recent climb (pre-Iowa, which makes it more trustworthy)…  sweat.

We are looking at it being either Huckabee as of February 5th or a brokered convention.  If it’s brokered, Huck will still have the largest plurality.

While I’m on it, let me say (I think the word is “again”) that a brokered convention is not in and of itself a bad thing.  In fact the fact it’s undecided innately keeps the candidates – and the party – in the public eye with regularity.  Publicity isn’t always a bad thing.  It gets bad if all the candidates shift to mudslinging — pick me because I’m not as bad as HIM (or her).  Yes, some dirt will show up, but as long as it’s mostly clean…

Now over in the Democratic side… I am trimming my sails there as well.  Pre-Iowa, Clinton had a lead.  But Obama was gaining.  I think – as long as Edwards keeps pulling around 20% – that the Dems have a good chance of going to a brokered convention.  The kicker is the previous discussion of the Richardson’s supporters’ release into the wild.  We’ll just have to see what impact that has on both SC and NV to get anything resembling a solid handle on the result.


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