My “daring” prediction

Obama wins Georgia in the General Election in November.  I’ve kind of thought so already — all the lower level tests I use say so despite what’s in the polls.  Yesterday’s Dem victory in Mississippi’s CD1 clinched it for me, however.  Let’s run the basics, though.

Remember my bit about turnout of primary to general.  In 2000, Bush v Gore, the primary turnout was nominally congruent to the state’s general election turnout for the two parties.  The same in 1992 – Clinton v Bush.  The primary turnout in 2008 was highly reflective of the 1992 turnout – Dems up by almost 10%, and the Dems won Georgia by about that amount (at least nationally).

The second worry the Republicans have in Georgia is Bob Barr.  This is his home state.  This state also picked Huckabee above McCain.  Unless Huckabee is the VP, a lot of R voters in Georgia will go L this time.  I’d be quite comfortable betting on 5%, and it could go as high as 10%.  If Huckabee is the VP on the ticket it might “only” be 1 or 2 percent.  That is, of those who bother to turn out.

Third worry is the general malaise that torpedoed three special elections recently.  Heavy Republican districts where the biggest reason the Ds won is the Rs… didn’t really come out to play.  There’ll always be the large numbers who vote come hell or high water.  But there are some…

Now, it’s not all going to go Obama’s way.  Like it or not there will be a slice of Dems who stay home or vote R because of race.

But my feel – and it is a gut feeling – is that it won’t be enough.  I really think that around 9 pm on that Tuesday evening, the maps will show Georgia as a Democratic victory.  At worst, it’ll be “undecided” a LOT later than it’s been in the past decade and a half.


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