As longer-term readers may know, I’ve long felt the administration WANTED to attack Iran, but has been stopped by, well, by people who allowed Iraq to happen and are trying avoid “shame on me.” (The correct version, Mr. President, is, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”)
This bias has made it hard to predict actual attempt to attack. Not least, because a lot of innocuous activity has looked to be the ‘first stages’.
Now one of the avenues that’s open which avoids a lot of this is for the attack to be done by a proxy – Israel. A couple of years ago or so there was some worry when Israel bought the very deep penetrator bombs from us, but nothing came of that.
At the beginning of this month, the worry ratcheted up some more. Israel conducted air exercises at the end of a long range – specifically, near Greece. The distance to Greece and Iran are not dissimilar. The official word from both Greece and Israel has been “no” – among other things they point out that the exercises were for the most part done at high altitudes instead of low. That’s not, in my opinion, a definitive defense. The airstrike practices done in the exercise WERE conducted at the appropriate altitudes. And while the coastal crescent is low, there’s a very high mountain range followed by high plateau in Iraq that makes things just a wee bit closer than you might assume. Still, if that was all, I’d have passed.
Thing is, Israel is buying things. Say rather, they’re buying potentially military supplies at higher rates of acquisition than ‘normal’. Increased parts. Increased fuel. Increased commodities and foodstuffs.
It worries me.
It will take them another couple to four weeks to have most of the purchased goods in hand. That’s my watch window. Mid to late July. I’m not sure enough to go nuts. But I’m worried enough to make sure I’m not at a complete loss for ‘what to do.’
I’m going to keep an eye on indicators. I might be making some advance purchases next weekend – just in case.