Longrange political forecasting

Frankly, it’s too early to do this as more than just fun. Still, I’m in a mood, so here we go.

When I was forecasting the last Republican nomination, I forgot something fairly important. The GOP tends to end up with the person who is “next” – who’s paid the dues of time and effort either by running the race the most times OR by holding the office just below.

If Cheney enters the race for the 2012 election, I would consider him the frontrunner. Don’t look at his overall favorables, look at how he looks in the eyes of the Republicans. If you didn’t click the link (or it goes null), that’s 70% favorable and 25% unfavorable in June of this year.

If Cheney doesn’t run, it’s back to the fight of the three legs. At this time I think the Corporatists are still stuck on Romney – even though both the nativists and the dominionists have rejected him. The preference of the nativists is Palin, and for the dominionists it’s Huckabee. The latter like Palin though not as much, while the dominionists would tolerate Huckabee. On the other hand, Huckabee is higher on the “his turn” list than Palin. If the elections were next year instead of three years away I’d give the nod to Palin – the corporatists don’t like Huck, and seem neutral on Palin.

This doesn’t mean that’s the list for 2012. There are other people who are alleged to be considering the race who haven’t entered. And there are a lot of things that can and will influence it that will happen over the next couple of years.

That said, I think the Republicans have a problem in that the zealots are in charge. I think the winner of the nomination is going to have to convince the zealots he (or she) is ‘one of them’, and in the process will drive a LOT of everyone else to the other side in simple self-preservation. I know, I’ve spoken of it before but it’s still true.

True believers drive out everyone else. Fortunately this is a self-defeating tactic in a democracy.


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