Prediction fun

Any professional will tell you that it’s waaaay too early to predict the republican presidential nominee for 2012 at this time. They’ll tell you any test you use for past nominations, regardless how well it does, is suspect. I agree. Still, I have a fun test.

Get the list of potential nominees as of three years prior to the nomination. Use google news archive search, limit it to that year (1993, 1997, 2001, 2005, and 2009). Search for all the potential nominees using the string (without quotes) “republican presidential candidate [name]” – replace [name] with the last name of each potential candidate in turn. Note the number of hits, and see the magic yourself.

The potential candidate who receives the most hits becomes the nominee three years later – with the exception, of course, of 2009 as 2012 has not yet happened.

That person, by this magic 8-ball, is Sarah Palin.

I note it, I do NOT endorse it, but out of idle interest I will remember to see how this mechanism works.

Oh – it does not work for democratic nominees.

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3 thoughts on “Prediction fun

  1. Seriously? Do you ACTUALLY think she will run? Do you really think the GOP wants her? She was a trainwreck, and she STILL IS! (there are a lot of republican train wrecks… gay sex in bathrooms from homophobes, adulterous international affairs, and Sarah Palin – abstinence only education with a pregnant teenage daughter, on top of the STUPIDEST retreat from office I have ever seen to hide her impending divorce)

    Seriously? She’s an idiot. She KILLED McCain’s campaign. They think she can run on her own? The Democratic party would love it…

  2. Seriously? Read the post – it’s too early to be serious. That said, I need to make some points you’re forgetting.

    Sarah Palin has lousy number for the general population. But she’s got 60 approval-30 disapproval (and 10 dunno) among Republicans. The only person mentioned at all with a better net approval rate is Dick Cheney (70-25).

    I have said several times that the problem with using zealots is that sometimes they take the reins. When they do the battle to clear them is always painful and not always successful. In the latter case it’s destructive. Both Democrats and Republicans have their zealots. The ones the Democrats have are still pretty well chained – and they don’t have major voices in the party. The Republicans, on the other hand, have built several of the past elections on the backs of these zealots and allowed some to get into driver seats.

    The zealots like Palin. Now it’s possible the rest of the Republicans will say, “No”. It is also possible they’ll be overwhelmed. After all, the other likely choices at this time are Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Jindal, with an outside chance of Cheney (if he enters, he’s number one. I don’t think he’ll enter.) Given that cast, Palin has some major strengths despite all the ills you stated.

    We’ll see.

  3. Well, I can’t imagine another presidential race right now, still burned out from the last one. I hope Cheney doesn’t run. I really hope Palin has another meltdown -or at least 3 years out of office leave her without enough experience – and no, the talk show circuit and a book aren’t presidential-candidate experience to me.

    She does, however, have experience that most recent presidents have shown – saying one thing and doing another, or promising things she can’t deliver.

    But I should keep my cynicism to myself, and just enjoy this brief moment in time where presidential candidates are NOT what the news is going on about.

    THe problem is, that most people who WANT to run for president are just the type of people I don’t WANT as a president!

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