If your business or personal page is heavily invested in flash, you need to start now on your replacement.
Now, flash is going to be around for a few more years, but the big deal is that it’s going away — the death knell has been sounded.
Whether Jobs at Apple anticipates or pushes the market is really immaterial. The simple fact is that the iPad won’t run Flash – not natively, and not easily with addons. HTML5Video does what flash does, but does it faster, more cleanly, and with less load.
The weakness of html5video is that older browsers such as ie6/7 and firefox 1/2 don’t handle it as inherent capability. On the other hand I can recall when both flash and shockwave were problems as well.
If you’re heavily invested in flash on your website, start planning the change. Be ahead of the curve.