The Arizona Blues

Reasonable suspicion can be a tricky thing, as Arizona is soon going to find out.  I’m going to enjoy them solving the puzzle of a test that allows “REASONABLE SUSPICION  [to] EXISTS THAT THE PERSON IS AN ALIEN WHO IS UNLAWFULLY PRESENT IN THE UNITED STATES” while ensuring race, color, or national origin have no part in the test.

Now as it happens, ten other states have legislators considering duplicating this stupidity.  The one state that has me laughing is Texas.  Here’s the deal.

In Arizona, while ~30% of the population is hispanic only ~16% of the voters are Hispanic.  A bit less than half vote Republican.  While seeing that 7% move from R to D means a 14% net shift, that only barely makes Arizona blue — 5% keeps it red.

In Texas, however, fully 40% of the voters are Hispanic.  In 2008 about half voted Republican.  The Republican margin overall is about 58-42 for elections, or about 16%.  Move 20 points from R to D and you get 38-62.

Even if only half current R Hispanics move, that’s 48-52, and still a Blue Texas overall — say, in senatorial and presidential elections.

The Arizona bill stands a good chance of making several red states blue in just a handful of years.

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